China's role growing in North Korean denuclearization

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, bids farewell to Chinese President Xi Jinping at Pyongyang International Airport in Pyongyang after the latter's visit to North Korea in this June 2019 photo. / Korea Times file

Pyongyang seeking to boost ties with Beijing

By Kang Seung-woo

Amid a prolonged deadlock in North Korean denuclearization talks, diplomatic observers believe that China should play a critical role in resolving the impasse.

Efforts to address the decades-long issue have stalled since former U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed to produce a nuclear deal in Hanoi, Vietnam in February 2019.

Despite repeated dialogue offers by U.S. President Joe Biden, who took office in January, the reclusive country has been refusing to engage with the United States, increasing calls for Beijing to cooperate in dealing with Pyongyang.

"As North Korea believes that it can achieve economic development via cooperation with China, the North has been refusing to engage either the U.S. or South Korea," said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute.

"In that respect, unless the U.S. musters China's support for a nuclear deal, it is not likely to get a successful agreement."

China is seen as the only country that can exert influence on North Korea, given that it is Pyongyang's biggest trading partner and the Kim regime's economic lifeline. In addition, the North Korean leader vowed to elevate relations with Beijing to a new strategic level in his congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi Jinping marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, Thursday.

In that respect, the South Korean and U.S. governments need to review expanding the denuclearization talks with North Korea into four-party talks that will include China, Cheong said.

"Given that North Korea needs China's cooperation in order to maintain its regime, the country will likely not reject Beijing's demand to participate in the multilateral forum," he said.

The South Korean analyst is not the only expert to think about China's role in the negotiations.

"I believe China can play a key role in getting North Korea back to the negotiations," said Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks.

Citing its heavy economic dependence on China, DeTrani also said in his recent contribution to 38 North, a U.S.-based website specializing in the North Korean regime, "It succeeded in convincing North Korea to join the six-party talks in 2003 and may be able to encourage North Korea to sit down again with the U.S. and resume denuclearization talks in return for security assurances and an eventual path to normal relations."

The six-party talks, established in 2003 as a multilateral forum to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, was composed of China, Japan, Russia, the U.S. and the two Koreas, but they have been suspended since 2008.

"This should be a priority for Beijing, to help prevent the potential for conflict on the Korean Peninsula and as an overture to the U.S. and others who may doubt Beijing's commitment to the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he added.

President Moon Jae-in talks with U.S. President Joe Biden during their summit in Washington, D.C., May 21. Yonhap

Christopher Hill, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea and top U.S. envoy to the six-party talks, admitted that the U.S. cannot address the problem alone, floating the need for a multilateral approach.

"We need other countries to be engaged and other countries who have a substantial interest in a positive outcome," he said in a webinar, June 25, jointly hosted by the Universal Peace Federation and Washington Times Foundation.

"After all, the North Korean state, to a great extent, it owes its very existence to China. And so, China, I think it is fair to say, has leverage with North Korea. Perhaps they don't have as much leverage as some American observers suggest they do, but they certainly have more leverage than they suggest that they do," Hill said.

During his first visit to Seoul in March, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also hoped that China would use its "tremendous influence" to urge North Korea to give up its nuclear program, citing China's unique relationship with the North.